Should you buy this fall or wait for spring 2027 on the South Shore?

It's the question I hear most these days. People look at prices, they look at rates, and they wonder whether to buy now or let winter pass and aim for spring. My short answer: it depends on you, not on the calendar. Here is the full reasoning.

What fall gives you right now

Choice, first. In September there were 4,050 homes for sale on the South Shore, 32% more than a year earlier, according to QPAREB. A buyer today has far more options than on the same date last year. You can compare, take your time, and walk away from a home that only half fits without worrying there will be nothing left behind it.

Prices, next, are holding without taking off. The median price of a single-family home on the South Shore was 640,300 $ in September, roughly flat over the year. Condos sat around 405,500 $, down slightly. Nothing there pushes you to rush out of fear the price will jump 10% in six months, the way it did a few years ago. The urgency has switched sides.

And the pace of sales tells the same story. There were 746 transactions in September on the South Shore, 7% fewer than last year but 12% more than August. In other words, the fall market is very much alive, it's just in less of a hurry. A single-family home priced right was finding a buyer in about 37 days. Condos were taking closer to 57 days to sell. For a buyer, that stretch of time is room to negotiate.

What spring might change

Spring has its own logic, and it's a real one. It's the season when the most sellers put their homes on the market. So you get fresh listings, properties that haven't sat yet, and often the best selection of the year. If you're after a specific type of home in a specific area, waiting can mean finally landing the right one.

The flip side is that you won't be the only one thinking that way. Spring brings the buyers back too. The people who put their plans on hold this fall all return at once, and competition climbs with them. On a good property that's priced well, you move quickly from quiet showings to multiple offers. The surplus of listings that buyers are enjoying right now can shrink in part if demand picks up before supply does.

What about waiting for a rate cut?

That's the argument I hear most for waiting. I understand it, but I find it shaky. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, and its next decision lands on October 28. The best five-year fixed rates in Quebec sit around 4.4% and have been edging up slightly this fall, not melting away. Nobody can promise you a lower rate come spring. And even if a cut did arrive, it would likely pull back in all the buyers waiting on the same signal, which puts pressure on prices. You can save on the rate and pay the difference on the purchase price. Buying while it's quiet and refinancing later if rates fall is, more often than not, the simpler play.

What this means for you

• You're buying to live in it: if you're ready, financially and personally, fall is working for you. You have the choice, time to get an inspection done, and sellers more open to a thoughtful offer on a home that's been listed for six or eight weeks. Target the listings that have aged a bit and check the price history before you offer. Wait for spring only if the type of property you want is rare in your area and nothing currently listed truly fits.
• You're selling to buy again: the math runs across both transactions, not one. If you sell and buy in the same market, a pricier spring to sell into is also a pricier spring to buy in. Selling this fall, while a well-priced home still goes in 37 days, then buying while the selection is wide, can put you on the right side of both. I get into this in my piece on selling first or buying first.
• You're buying to invest: the condos and plexes that sit 57 to 61 days on the market are exactly where the best entries get negotiated. A seller whose building has been listed for two months will listen to a serious offer backed by the income. Keep your discipline on price and cap rate, and take advantage of the fact that investor competition is thinner than it will be in spring.

There's no universal right season, there's your file. Your budget, your financing, the area you're after and what's available this week matter far more than the month on the calendar. If you're torn between buying now and holding off, let's look together at what's selling in your range and on what terms. Request a free evaluation or write to me, and we'll go through your numbers. You can also read my take on whether home prices will fall on the South Shore.