Commercial real estate: where the money is going in 2026, and why the South Shore benefits

$2.9 billion. That's what investors put into Greater Montreal commercial real estate in the first quarter of 2026, according to Altus Group. It's 65% more than a year ago. After two years when everyone was waiting, the money is moving again. And a growing share of it is crossing the bridge.

The buyers are back

The context has changed one essential thing: the cost of money has become predictable. The Bank of Canada's policy rate has sat at 2.25% since March, renewed in April and again in June. The next decision lands today, and the C.D. Howe Institute's monetary policy council unanimously recommended another hold. When an investor can calculate their five-year financing without guessing, they buy. That's exactly what the quarter's numbers show.

Where is that money going? First into multifamily, which attracted nearly $1.6 billion, 54% of all volume traded in the region. That's a 55% increase year over year. Rental remains the safe haven in Montreal, where the share of renters is among the highest in the country.

Longueuil, the fastest-rising market

The most striking figure in the Altus report concerns our area. Multifamily transaction volume in the Longueuil agglomeration reached $222 million in the first quarter, nearly five times last year's level. No other submarket in the region has seen growth like it.

The reasons are concrete. The REM links the South Shore to downtown in fifteen minutes. The entry price per door remains lower than on the island. And the rental clientele is there: young professionals who want quality housing without paying Griffintown rents. I broke down the plex numbers in my July 8 analysis; what the Altus data adds is that institutional buyers are now running the same math as private investors.

Industrial is finding its footing, and Candiac offers an example

Industrial investment reached $467 million in the first quarter, up 36%. The market is emerging from two difficult years: according to CBRE, Greater Montreal's vacancy rate fell to 5.4%, the first decline since late 2021. Asking rents, meanwhile, have been treading water between $13 and $14 per square foot for twelve quarters.

The detail that matters for us: new construction is concentrated elsewhere. More than three quarters of the industrial square footage under construction is in Laval and on the North Shore. Meanwhile, the demand is showing up here. Intelcom has mandated Rosefellow to build a custom 190,000-square-foot distribution centre in Candiac. Altus, for its part, describes the South Shore as a prime destination for next-generation distribution centres, thanks to its land supply and highway access. Little new supply, returning demand: that's a good equation for anyone who already owns a functional industrial building in the area.

Office: a selective recovery

Office investment volume reached $470 million for the quarter. The growth percentage is spectacular, but it starts from one of the worst quarters ever recorded, so let's keep a cool head. What's a more solid signal: Greater Montreal's office availability rate fell to 16.4%, and to 14.7% for Class A. Return-to-office mandates from major employers are filling the quality buildings first. And with no new tower under construction, quality space is going to get scarce.

Retail follows its own logic: $227 million traded, with supply nearly impossible to find because owners of grocery-anchored centres refuse to sell. The benchmark transaction remains the purchase of Promenades St-Bruno for $565 million at the end of 2025, right here on the South Shore.

What this means for you

• You own a commercial, industrial or multifamily building on the South Shore: the buyers are back and quality supply is thin. It's the right time to know your asset's real value, even if you're not selling tomorrow.
• You're looking to invest: multifamily has become competitive, with institutional capital in the bidding. The opportunities are shifting toward buildings that need work, secondary commercial arteries and well-zoned land near transit corridors.
• You're a business owner looking for space: industrial rents haven't moved in three years and a share of newly delivered space is still vacant. You have negotiating leverage today that you may not have in eighteen months.

I work both sides of the market, residential and commercial, and it's often where the two intersect that the best opportunities on the South Shore reveal themselves. Want to know the value of your building or assess an investment project? Request a free evaluation or write to me directly. I answer personally.