Condos South Shore 2026: the market shifts to buyers

The condo has become the softest segment of the market. For a first-time buyer, that might be the best news of the year. Here is what July's numbers change for you before back-to-school season.

The condo has switched sides

The QPAREB released its July 2026 statistics on August 6. Across the Montreal metropolitan area, 1,142 condominiums sold last month, down 17% year over year. That is the hardest-hit category in the market, well below single-family homes, which fell 4%. While condo sales drop, supply is climbing faster than anywhere else: active listings are up 20% year over year.

The concrete result for buyers is time. A condo now takes an average of 55 days to sell in the region, nine more than last year. A single-family home still goes in 38 days. The QPAREB even describes the condo market as "in balance," a phrase we had not heard in a long while. Neither buyers nor sellers hold the upper hand. After years of having to decide in a single evening, that changes everything.

Condo supply is climbing fast here

The move started in the central neighbourhoods of the island, but it has shifted toward the suburbs. The QPAREB says it plainly: condo supply is now rising faster on the South Shore, in Laval and on the North Shore. When I look at the numbers sector by sector for July, the South Shore stands out:

• Candiac and La Prairie: 146 condos for sale, up 72% year over year.
• Saint-Hubert: 134 listings, up 60%.
• Sainte-Julie and Varennes: 88 listings, up 138%.
• Beloeil and Mont-Saint-Hilaire: 104 listings, twice as many as a year ago.
• Vieux-Longueuil: 245 condos for sale, up 38%.
• Brossard and Saint-Lambert: 511 listings, the largest concentration on the South Shore, up 12%.

More listings means more choice and more room to negotiate. That is especially true in Brossard, where the REM is already running and condo supply is the deepest on the South Shore. I covered that sector in July, and the trend has held since: read my analysis of the Brossard condo market.

Why prices are not collapsing

Here is the distinction I want to make, because it protects the buyer as much as the seller. Fewer sales does not mean falling prices. In July, the median condo price in the Montreal region reached $431,500, up 2% year over year. On the South Shore, the median sits around $410,000. Values are holding because underlying demand is still there, driven by households for whom a $650,000 single-family home stays out of reach.

What has changed is the balance of power at the offer stage. A year ago, a well-located condo drew several offers in a weekend. Today it waits nearly two months for its buyer. That does not knock 10% off the asking price, but it lets you inspect, shop your financing and negotiate a condition or two. This is a market of patience, not a fire sale.

Financing works in your favour

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, a sixth hold in a row. The next decision lands on September 2, and markets expect another hold. That stability lets you plan a purchase without fearing a surprise on your monthly payment. A five-year insured fixed rate sat around 4.09% in mid-August according to nesto and Ratehub, well below the posted rates at the big banks.

Keep the stress test in mind. The bank does not qualify you at the rate you will pay, but at your contract rate plus two points, or 5.25%, whichever is higher. For a condo, add the co-ownership fees to your math: they count in your debt ratio. Get your pre-approval and your real budget worked out before you visit, so you do not fall for a unit that is out of reach.

What it means for you

• If you're buying a first condo: this is your window. With 55 days on the market and supply rising fast, you can visit twice, get an inspection and put in a conditional offer without being outbid. Target the sectors where inventory is climbing most, like Candiac, La Prairie or Saint-Hubert, and keep your pre-approval current.
• If you're selling a condo: you have direct competition on your street and inside your building. The asking price becomes the deciding tool. Priced right, your condo still sells. Listed too high, it stays online while buyers compare it with the five other available units. The starting price and the quality of the photos decide almost everything.
• If you're investing: more choice and longer selling times give you room to negotiate. Rental demand on the South Shore stays firm because homeownership remains hard to reach. A well-located condo near the REM or a job hub keeps its tenant. Calculate your return on the price you pay, not the price advertised.

These figures are benchmarks for the whole South Shore, not the picture of your building. A new condo in Brossard does not compare to a 1990s unit in Longueuil. If you want to know what your condo is worth today, or how much you can afford, request a free evaluation or write to me. We'll look at your numbers together, not the provincial averages.