Single-Family Homes South Shore: Sellers Keep the Edge

These days, several homeowners write to me with the same worry: "the market is slowing, did I miss my window?" For a single-family home, the answer is no. Here is why.

The market is slowing, but not the same way everywhere

In July, 3,338 residential sales closed across the Greater Montreal area. That's a fifth straight monthly decline, and the steepest drop since February. Every segment and every large sector fell year over year. So far, the picture is clear: there is less activity than a year ago.

But the average hides two very different markets. On the condo side, sales dropped 17% and supply jumped 20%, the strongest rise of any category. On the single-family side, sales fell only 4%, and supply rose 13%, the smallest increase of the three segments. Same slowdown on paper, a very different reality on the ground.

Why the single-family seller keeps the edge

QPAREB says it plainly in its July release: despite the broad rebalancing, sellers of single-family homes and plexes still hold a clear advantage in negotiations. Three numbers explain it. The median single-family price climbed 4% year over year to $650,000. A house sells in an average of 38 days, against 55 days for a condo. And single-family supply grew more slowly than condo or plex supply. Fewer new signs, buyers who still move, prices that hold: that's the definition of a segment where the seller leads.

The condo, on the other hand, really shifted

It's in the condo that pressure eased, and it shows clearly on the South Shore. Condo listings surged in Candiac and La Prairie, up 72% year over year, in Saint-Hubert (+60%) and in Vieux-Longueuil (+38%). Even the steadier Brossard and Saint-Lambert sector counts 511 condos on the market, up 12%. A condo buyer today has a choice they didn't have last year, and real negotiating room. I covered this in detail in my piece on the condo market. The lesson for a homeowner: the softness is concentrated in condos, not in single-family homes.

Rates don't change the equation this week

The backdrop stays stable. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, and the next decision, on September 2, is expected to be another hold rather than a cut. On the mortgage side, in mid-August the best five-year insured fixed rate sat around 4.09%, and the five-year variable around 3.40%. Nothing new there before the fall. What moves is not the rate, it's the number of signs by property type.

What it means for you

• If you're selling a house: you keep the edge, but not the power to ask any price. A well-priced home sells in about 38 days; an overpriced one sits and ages while buyers compare. Set a fair starting price, prepare the listing properly, and you sell on good terms.
• If you're buying: there is more choice than a year ago across every segment, but houses still move fast. If you're after a single-family home, arrive pre-approved and ready to act. If a condo also fits, that's where negotiation is most open right now.
• If you're investing: the plex posted a median price of $865,000 in July, up 6% year over year, and its selling time actually fell 8 days to 46 days. That's another segment where the seller stays in a strong position. Always run your return at today's rate, not a hoped-for one.

These benchmarks apply to the region as a whole, not to your street. A house in Boucherville doesn't sell like a condo in Longueuil, and the right price depends on your neighbourhood, your product and the timing. Before you list or make an offer, let's talk about your real numbers. Request a free evaluation or write to me, and we'll look at your file together. You can also read my piece on negotiating a purchase.