Will home prices fall on the South Shore in fall 2026?

It is the question I hear most right now, from buyers hoping for a bargain and from owners worried they missed the peak. Sales are slowing, inventory is climbing, and yet prices keep rising. Here is how those three things hold together.

The August paradox, in three numbers

The August data the QPAREB released on September 4 paints a clear picture. Across the Montreal region, 2,853 sales closed, down 13% year over year. At the same time, inventory rose to 20,128 homes for sale, up 18%. And on the South Shore specifically, the number of listings jumped 28%, the strongest increase in the entire region.

With fewer active buyers and far more homes on offer, logic would say prices should drop. That is not what is happening. Over one year, the median price rose 3% for single-family homes, 4% for condos, and 2% for plexes. The market is slowing, but it is not falling. That is exactly what throws people off.

Why prices are not dropping

Three reasons combine. First, we are starting from a very low base on supply. After four years when there was almost nothing for sale, inventory up 28% is inventory catching up, not a glut. There is more choice than before, but not enough good, well-located homes to send prices tumbling.

Second, single-family homes remain a seller's market in most sectors of the region. A quality home, priced correctly, still finds a buyer. It takes a bit longer than before, 42 days on average in August versus 41 a year earlier, but it sells. That is not the picture of a market giving up.

Third, the cost of money has settled. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, a seventh straight hold, with prime at 4.45%. A five-year fixed sits around 4.24% in Quebec and a variable dips near 3.45%. When financing stops climbing, buyers who were on the sidelines come back, and that demand supports prices.

Where the adjustment is real

Saying prices are holding is not saying everything is going up. The condo is the segment furthest along in its rebalancing. Condos now sell in an average of 62 days, twelve days more than a year ago, and on the Island of Montreal conditions are brushing up against a buyer's market. Smaller units in particular are harder to move when buyers are spoiled for choice.

On the South Shore, that means a mispriced condo no longer gets the tailwind it had two years ago. The day-one asking price matters more than ever. The plex, meanwhile, is holding up well: its selling time actually fell four days, to 52 days, a sign that multi-unit properties are still sought after.

And what about the months ahead?

No one can promise you a number, and I am wary of anyone who does. What the data says is that we are not in a crash scenario. We are in a market catching its breath. Two forces are pulling against each other: supply that keeps rising, which weighs on prices, and weaker population growth paired with economic uncertainty, which slows demand without erasing it. The most likely result for the coming months: prices that move little, flat to slightly up for single-family homes, softer for condos.

In other words, the era of 10% jumps a year is behind us. But waiting for an across-the-board discount of 15% or 20% is likely to end in a long disappointment.

What it means for you

• If you want to buy: you have more choice and more time to decide than at any point since 2020. But waiting for a quality single-family home to drop in price is a bet the numbers do not support. Buy the right property at the right price, not on a forecast.
• If you want to sell: you did not miss the peak, median prices are still rising. But the margin for error has shrunk. A price backed by recent comparables and a clean launch from day one matter more than ever. A condo needs a sharper strategy than a house.
• If you invest: the plex is holding up best and its selling time is tightening. With a stable policy rate and inventory that finally offers choice, this is a better window to negotiate than a year ago, as long as you run your return on real rents, not optimistic projections.

These benchmarks apply to the region, not to your street. A Longueuil bungalow, a Brossard condo, and a Saint-Bruno house do not follow the same curve. Before you set a price or make an offer, let's talk about your real comparables. Request a free evaluation or write to me, and we'll look at your exact situation. You can also revisit my guide on how to set your asking price.