The South Shore in October: fewer sales, far more choice

October's numbers are out, and they confirm what I have been seeing on the ground for a few weeks. Fewer houses are selling on the South Shore. But there are a lot more for sale. For a buyer, that is the best news of the fall.

Fewer sales, and no surprise there

The South Shore recorded 749 residential sales in October, down 16 per cent year over year, according to APCIQ's monthly statistics released on November 6. That is a clear drop, but not a collapse: September had 746 sales, so the market held steady from one month to the next. Across the greater Montreal area, there were 3,252 sales, down 18 per cent, about 13 per cent below the ten-year average for an October. The slowdown is not specific to our region, and it has been building since the start of the year.

Inventory, though, has jumped

Here is the real change. There were 4,067 properties for sale on the South Shore at the end of the month, 30 per cent more than a year ago. It is not because sellers rushed the market: new listings for the month were actually down 1 per cent. Inventory is building because homes sit longer before they find a buyer. A single-family house took an average of 34 days to sell in October, a condo 49. APCIQ reports the same trend across the region, with inventory up 30 per cent on the South Shore and on the North Shore, and up 34 per cent in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu. Put plainly, the buyer who saw three houses in their budget last spring now sees five or six.

So what about prices?

This is the part that often surprises people: prices are not falling. The median single-family house on the South Shore held at $629,000 in October, up 1 per cent year over year. The median condo is at $407,000 (+2%) and the plex at $810,000 (+5%). Region-wide, APCIQ still has the single-family median up 2 per cent. Why do prices hold when sales drop? Because an owner who is not forced to sell would rather wait than give the house away. As long as sellers hold their price, the market stays generally in their favour, even as it loosens. The pressure has eased, it has not disappeared.

Financing is still the tipping point

All of this plays out against the backdrop of rates. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28, and the banks took their prime rate to 4.70% the next day. On the mortgage side, the best five-year fixed rates sit around 4.44% in Quebec and variable around 3.66%, according to nesto as of November 6. APCIQ's economist is clear about this: the recent rise in fixed rates and the Bank's hike could deepen the slowdown in the coming months. That is exactly what is pushing many buyers toward more affordable areas rather than giving up their plans. The cost of borrowing often decides which town you shop in.

What it means for you

• If you are selling: your house no longer competes with two others in the neighbourhood, but with many more. With 30 per cent more listings out there, the first-day price has never mattered more. A well-prepared home at the right price still sells in about a month; an overpriced one waits out the whole winter while buyers pick the one next door. Do not anchor your expectation to the spring peak, aim at today's market.
• If you are buying: this is your window. More choice, less overbidding, and an average of 34 days to think instead of firing off an offer the same evening. Inspection and financing conditions are back in offers. Take the time to compare and negotiate, because the sight-unseen bidding era is behind us for now.
• If you are investing: more inventory means more deals to analyze and more room to negotiate. The median plex is still climbing (+5%), but its inventory is rising fast too, and APCIQ warns that a gap is opening between what sellers expect and what buyers can pay. Watch financing costs as closely as the purchase price, and look at the more affordable sectors where demand is shifting.

These figures describe the South Shore as a whole, not your street. A fully renovated house and an original bungalow in the same area can tell two different stories. Before you list or write an offer this fall, let's talk about your real comparables. Request a free evaluation or write to me, and we will look at your specific case. You can also read my piece on home prices by town on the South Shore.