The spring numbers are in, and they shift something. For the first time in years, there are enough homes for sale across Greater Montreal to push inventory above its ten-year average. That is new. And yet a single-family home still finds a buyer within a month. Here is what it means for you heading into fall.
The Q2 picture
On July 14, the QPAREB released its second-quarter 2026 statistics. Across the Montreal metropolitan area, which includes the South Shore, an average of 20,735 properties were listed on Centris, up 14% year over year. The detail is worth pausing on: metro inventory now sits 7% above its ten-year average. Montreal is the only region in Quebec in that position. Everywhere else, the shortage of homes persists.
Sales, meanwhile, fell 7%, with 13,365 transactions in the metro area. More supply, fewer sales: the market is rebalancing, quietly, in favour of buyers. But selling time has not followed yet. A single-family home sells in an average of 32 days, three faster than a year ago. Good properties, well presented, still move quickly.
Rebalancing does not mean falling prices
This is the misunderstanding I correct most this summer. People see inventory rising and assume prices will give way. That is not what the numbers show. The median single-family price in the region reached $645,000 in the second quarter, up 3%. Condos followed at $430,000 (+1%) and plexes climbed to $874,000 (+5%). Prices rose in every segment, even with sales down.
The growth is simply softer than in 2024 and 2025. The rebalancing changes the pace, not the direction. And it does not touch every segment the same way. Condos are easing fastest: their inventory jumped 20%, and it now takes an average of 48 days to sell one, six days longer than a year ago. Single-family homes and plexes stay firmly on the sellers' side. That nuance is what matters when you plan a purchase or a sale for the fall.
Financing, still the quiet decision-maker
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, a sixth hold in a row. The next decision comes in September. That stability helps everyone plan their fall. On the mortgage side, a five-year insured fixed rate sits around 4.09% at the end of July, with a few lenders dipping near 4%.
Don't forget the stress test. The bank does not qualify you at the rate you will pay, but at your contract rate plus two points, or 5.25%, whichever is higher. That figure sets your real borrowing power. With more choice on the market, the real question isn't "what's available," it's "how much do I actually qualify for." Get that number worked out before you visit anything.
Where it plays out on the South Shore
The South Shore sits just below the metro median, which makes it a more accessible entry point than the island while keeping demand strong. Family areas like Candiac, La Prairie, Saint-Bruno and Boucherville keep drawing households moving up from a smaller home. That is where the current tension is most visible: more signs on front lawns, but move-in-ready, well-priced homes still changing hands within weeks. The QPAREB now forecasts a 6% drop in Quebec sales for 2026 and a 5% rise in the median single-family price over the year. In other words, fewer transactions, but prices that hold.
What it means for you
- If you're buying: this is your best window in two years. With 14% more listings and inventory above its historical average, you have choice and real negotiating room, especially in condos. But don't take the 32 days lightly on single-family homes. Have your pre-approval in hand and your capacity worked out at the stress-test rate before you fall for an address.
- If you're selling: you are no longer alone on your street. With more competition, the asking price becomes your number-one tool. Priced right, your home still sells within a month. Listed 5% too high, it feeds the inventory statistics instead of selling. The starting price decides almost everything.
- If you're investing: the homeownership wall keeps many households renting, and rental demand on the South Shore stays firm. The plex segment posted the strongest gain of the quarter, at a median of $874,000, up 5%, in a market that remains clearly seller-favourable.
These figures are regional benchmarks, not the picture of your street. Every neighbourhood and property type moves at its own pace. If you want to know what your home is really worth in today's market, request an evaluation or write to me. We'll look at your numbers together. You can also read my analysis on how to set your asking price.