The South Shore residential market is bouncing back this fall, without overheating

"The market's dead, right?" A buyer asked me that last week, standing on a doorstep in Brossard. I understand the feeling. But September's numbers tell a different story.

Sales picked back up in September

After a quiet summer, the South Shore found some movement again. In September, 746 properties found a buyer in the region, 12% more than in August, according to QPAREB. Yes, that is still 7% fewer than the same month last year. But the direction has changed: we are going up, not down.

You have to read that rebound inside the year's rhythm. In January, the South Shore was running at 559 sales a month. The spring peak came in March, at 1,284 transactions. Summer slowed, as it does every year. And September got the machine going again. That is the normal cycle of Quebec real estate, not a crisis signal.

"The market is dead": why that's wrong

When I hear that, it is almost always a comparison with 2021. Back then, a decent property sold in 48 hours with five offers. Next to that, yes, everything looks slow. But 2021 was not normal, it was an anomaly. Today's market looks a lot more like the one before the pandemic: it works, it just takes effort on both sides.

What really changed is the speed. A well-priced single-family home sold in about 37 days in September, a condo closer to 57. In March, it was 31 days for a house and 39 for a condo. Things take longer, but they still happen. Buyers are out there, they shop, they compare, and then they buy.

More choice, prices that hold

The big fall story is inventory. In September, 4,050 properties were for sale on the South Shore, 32% more than a year earlier. Another 1,616 new listings came on during the month, up 20%. Buyers finally have choice, and it shows in how they negotiate.

You would think more supply pulls prices down. For now, no. The median price of a single-family home on the South Shore was $640,300 in September, barely 1% below last year. The condo sat around $405,500, down a slight 3%. Prices are holding, not collapsing. QPAREB confirms it across Greater Montreal: most markets still favour the seller, and single-family stays firmly on the seller's side. The association's economist does not expect a truly balanced market before mid-2027.

Financing, still the backdrop

Nothing new on rates, and that is exactly the point. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, a seventh straight pause, and its next decision lands on October 28, two days from now. Prime stays at 4.45%. The best five-year fixed rates sit around 4.4 to 4.6% in Quebec and have edged up this fall rather than down. The variable dips near 3.4% on the strongest insured files. Nobody should delay a plan hoping for a rate cut before Christmas.

What this means for you

• You are selling: fall is a real selling season, not a waiting room before spring. Buyers from September to November are often more serious than the window-shoppers of May. But with 4,050 properties competing, your first-day price does everything. Price it right, present it well, and you stand out from a larger inventory than last year.
• You are buying: you have choice and time, two things you didn't have recently. Keep your inspection and financing conditions, visit several homes, look at the price history of listings up six or eight weeks. On a rare, well-located property, still be ready to move, because those can still draw competition.
• You are investing: fall is the quiet window. Fewer emotional buyers competing with you, and sellers whose condo or plex has lingered two months who will listen to a serious offer. Hold your discipline on price and yield, and take advantage of thinner competition than you'll see in spring.

These numbers are for the South Shore as a whole, not your street. A bungalow in Saint-Lambert doesn't follow the same curve as a new house in La Prairie, and a condo near the REM in Brossard trades differently from an older unit. Before you list or make an offer, let's talk about your real comparables. Request a free home evaluation or write to me, and we'll look at your specific case. You can also read my take on selling this winter or waiting for spring.