Sell this winter or wait for spring 2027?

Every year around this time, the same question comes up in my meetings: do I list the house now, or do I wait for spring? It's a fair question. And this year, the honest answer isn't the same for everyone.

Why the question really matters this fall

The old reflex says wait for spring, when the sun comes back and buyers come out. Except the 2026 market looks nothing like the one from four years ago. In September there were 4,050 homes for sale on the South Shore, 32% more than a year earlier, according to QPAREB. Sales, meanwhile, fell 7%, to 746 transactions. So there are already plenty of listings on the market, and selling times are getting longer: 37 days for a single-family home, but 57 for a condo and 61 for a plex.

On the financing side, nothing suggests that waiting will make money any cheaper. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, for a seventh time in a row, and its next decision lands on October 28. No one is talking about a cut at that meeting. Bond markets are even pricing in a possible increase before year-end. The five-year fixed sits around 4.4%. Put plainly, spring buyers won't necessarily have a bigger budget than this winter's.

Selling in the cold season

Winter has a bad reputation, and part of it is earned: fewer buyers are out wandering in January than in May. But that's only half the story. People who tour a house in the middle of February aren't doing it to kill time. They're buying because of a job transfer, a lease ending, a baby on the way, or financing already approved. These are serious buyers, not Sunday browsers.

On the other side, your home also faces less competition. Many sellers pull their listing in December or hold off before going live. During those quieter months, a well-presented and well-priced home stands out, because there are fewer signs in the same price range. A home that's ready and listed at the right number sells just fine in January. I've seen it often enough to stop believing in the myth of the dead winter market.

Waiting for spring: what it promises, and what it doesn't

Spring brings more buyers, that's true. But it also brings more sellers. Everyone has the same plan: list the moment the snow melts. In September there were already 1,616 new listings on the South Shore, 20% more than a year earlier. By spring that flow swells again. So you go from a market with more buyers to a market with far more homes for sale at the same time as yours.

You also have to look at today's prices rather than the ones you're hoping for. In September the median price of a single-family home on the South Shore was $640,300, down 1% year over year. The condo sat at $405,500, down 3%. The plex at $775,000, up 2%. Nothing points to a sharp rebound in spring with rates that aren't falling. Waiting isn't a guaranteed win: you trade a bit more traffic for a lot more competition, and bet on rates that could even climb in the meantime.

What this means for you

• You're selling a house: if yours shows well and you're ready to list at the true market price, winter is a real option, not a fallback. Fewer buyers, but serious ones, and less direct competition. If you have flexibility, prepare the home now so you can list early, in February or early March, ahead of the spring wave rather than in the thick of it. Either way, the prep happens now: I go into it in my piece on preparing your home to sell.
• You're selling a condo: this is the segment where you have to be the most realistic. Selling time has climbed to 57 days and prices are down 3% year over year. A condo listed too high will sit, winter or spring. Here the starting price matters more than the season. You set it against recent sales in the building or the area, not against hope, as I explain in how to price your home.
• You're buying: winter works in your favour. Fewer buyers around you, motivated sellers, listings that have aged and become negotiable. Get your financing approved before you shop, so you're ready to put in a thoughtful offer when the right property comes up.
• You're selling a plex or income property: that market doesn't really follow the seasons, it follows the numbers. The median plex sits at $775,000, up slightly, but selling time jumped to 61 days. An investor buys on income and yield, not on a soft spot for the place. Line the price up with the real cap rate for the area and a serious buyer, financing in hand, will show up in January as readily as in June.

These benchmarks apply to the South Shore in general. Your property has its own file: its sector, its condition, its direct competition this week. Before choosing between listing now or waiting, let's look at your real comparables and your timeline together. Request a free evaluation or write to me, and we'll build the strategy that fits your situation.