Bidding wars are fading on the South Shore, and buyers can breathe again

"Am I going to have to bid over asking to win it?" That is one of the first questions I hear at showings this fall. And my answer, today, is a lot more often no than it was two years ago.

Overbidding hasn't vanished, but it has calmed down

Let me put a number on the feeling. Across Greater Montreal, about 5% of transactions still close above the asking price, according to QPAREB. During the pandemic it was almost the reverse: on a good property, overpaying was the rule, not the exception. Today the exception is an exception again.

We are not back in the frenzy of 2021, but overbidding has not completely disappeared either. On the South Shore, a spotless, move-in-ready home priced right in a sought-after area can still draw more than one offer. What has changed is the offer written with eyes closed, no inspection and no financing condition, just to be sure of winning. That one I see far less often.

Why the pressure is easing: supply

The explanation comes down to one word: choice. In September there were 4,050 properties for sale on the South Shore, 32% more than a year earlier. Across Greater Montreal, active listings reached 21,793, up 20%, a fourteenth straight month of growth. Inventory now sits roughly 18% above its ten-year average.

When a buyer has choice, they stop fearing they will lose the property to someone else. They take time to visit several homes, to compare, to think about their offer. That is exactly the mechanism that kills overbidding. The pace of sales tells the same story: 746 transactions in September on the South Shore, down 7% year over year. A well-priced single-family home found a buyer in about 37 days, a condo closer to 57. For a buyer, that delay is room to negotiate.

Careful: this is not a buyer's market yet

I have to be straight about this. Easing pressure does not mean the balance of power has flipped. QPAREB measures balance with months of inventory. Under eight months, the market favours the seller. Between eight and ten, it is balanced. Above ten, it tips to the buyer. The South Shore and the wider region are still below the balanced threshold. So we are still in seller territory, just with a thinner edge than a year ago.

Prices confirm it. They are holding rather than falling. The median price of a single-family home on the South Shore was $640,300 in September, roughly flat year over year. The condo sat around $405,500, down slightly. QPAREB's economist does not expect a truly balanced market before mid-2027, if the trend continues. In other words, the current window is an in-between: less competition, but no across-the-board discounts.

Financing, still the backdrop

The backdrop has not moved. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, a seventh straight pause, and its next decision lands on October 28. Prime stays at 4.45%. In Quebec, the best five-year fixed rates sit around 4.4 to 4.6% and have been edging up this fall rather than melting away. The variable dips near 3.4% on the strongest insured files. So do not count on a rate cut to bring overbidding back before year-end.

What this means for you

• You are selling: don't set your price as if a bidding war will make up for an inflated number. Buyers compare before they offer. The first-day price makes the sale. An overpriced home sits on the market and ends up selling the neighbour's instead. Price it right from the start and you keep the upper hand.
• You are buying: you have room you didn't have recently. Keep your inspection and financing conditions, take your time on listings that have been up six or eight weeks, look at the price history, and make a reasoned offer. On a rare, well-priced property in a hot area, still be ready to move, because those can still draw competition.
• You are investing: condos and plexes sitting 57 to 61 days on the market are where the best entries get negotiated. A seller whose building has lingered for two months will listen to a serious offer backed by the real numbers. Hold your discipline on price and cap rate, and take advantage of thinner investor competition than you'll see in spring.

These averages are for the South Shore as a whole, not your street. A bungalow in Brossard doesn't follow the same curve as a house in Boucherville, and a new condo near the REM trades differently from an older unit. Before you set a price or make an offer, let's talk about your real comparables. Request a free home evaluation or write to me, and we'll look at your specific case. You can also read my take on buying this fall or waiting for spring.